It's the final week before 4 Nations, which is why there are fewer games than usual and jam-packed on Tuesday and Saturday, which feature a week-high 14 games each.
Only four teams play four games in Week 18, but none face particularly weak opponents. The red-hot Senators and Lightning will face each other twice, and they're ranked first and second on the schedule matrix. The Canadiens might be the best bet with the Sharks on Tuesday and the struggling Devils on Saturday before facing the tired Lightning - playing their fourth game in six nights - on Sunday. Utah would be good if they had a healthy lineup, but without top center Logan Cooley, they're far less attractive.
The big storyline heading into Week 18 are the big trades. The Sleepers and Keepers podcast will have a new episode on Monday morning at 8 a.m. PT/11 a.m. ET to cover all of them, including the Canucks sending J.T. Miller to the Rangers and acquiring Marcus Pettersson from the Penguins, the Stars loading up with Mikael Granlund, and the Flyers and Flames swapping players in need of a change in scenery. The episode will discuss the fantasy impact for each of the players who have switched teams, and also those who've been affected the most.
Here's the Coles Notes:
- J.T. Miller, who scored two goals in his Rangers debut and playing L1 with Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, looks like he's returning to his 2023-24 all-star form.
- Given the Canucks' lack of elite talent on the wings, Filip Chytil's fantasy value remains unchanged. His injury history is a risk and the Canucks offense is weaker without Miller.
- Marcus Pettersson makes the Canucks defense better; the beneficiary of that should be Thatcher Demko, who has struggled this season
- Mikael Granlund moves to a better team but into a lesser role; his scoring should dip as he plays significantly fewer minutes
- Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee have untapped upside that may turn them into more than just streaming options. Farabee's L1 role with increased minutes should lead to more production, and Frost might benefit from a change in scenery.
- Andrei Kuzmenko is not a John Tortorella type of player, and it remains to be seen if he can earn enough trust to play with Matvei Michkov - they played together in the KHL. Jakob Pelletier might fare better, but his fantasy value is muted as a middle-six, two-way winger without a defining offensive skill, and the Flyers are short on quality centers.
As we predicted on the podcast, the upcoming 4 Nations served as a unofficial trade deadline, and there's the possibility of more trades happening this week or immediately following the tournament.
Schedule
Pick players from teams at the top of the schedule matrix to maximize games and matchups. Green is good. Red is bad. All advanced stats courtesy naturalstatrick.com. All positions and rostered percentages are courtesy of chof360 Fantasy. Points percentages are as of Saturday.
Jason Chen
Season-long adds
(< 50% rostered on chof360)
Bryan Rust, RW, Penguins (46% rostered)
Rust picked up his 20th goal against the Predators and it's a favorable schedule coming up for the Pens. As I've said all season, Rust should be rostered in all leagues.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C/LW, Capitals (45% rostered)
Dubois ranks 40th in scoring since Jan. 1, scoring 26 points in 28 games, and yet remains criminally under-rostered in all leagues. It's at the point where he's shown enough to be worth rostering for the rest of the season.
Adam Fantilli, C, Blue Jackets (34% rostered)
The Jackets' top center continues to produce. He scored two assists with nine shots and 14 faceoff wins in his past two games. He has plenty of ROS fantasy value, even when Sean Monahan returns. Boone Jenner's imminent return might give Fantilli a boost, too.
Alexander Romanov, D, Islanders (35% rostered)
If you're in a banger league, Romanov needs to be picked up. Previously only good for blocks and hits, Romanov has added some offense to his repertoire with four points and 11 shots in six games. Maybe we're jumping on the gun a little too soon, but perhaps better safe than story with a stash. The Isles loaded up on defensemen who are ahead of Romanov for PP minutes, but Romanov should still play the most total minutes out of all of them. He played 31:39 (!) against the Lightning on Saturday and he will maintain his No. 1 role as long as Ryan Pulock and Noah Dobson are out. Romanov does not do cardio games.
Mid-term holds
(< 50% rostered on chof360)
Pavel Dorofeyev, LW/RW, Golden Knights (45% rostered)
If you want scoring, Dorofeyev's a good option. He's scored three points in two games heading into Sunday's matchup against the Rangers, and faces the Isles, Devils and Bruins in Week 18, all of whom are either shorthanded or inconsistent on defense.
Matthew Knies, LW, Maple Leafs (42% rostered)
Knies scored two points immediately upon his return to the lineup, and he's a mainstay on L1 with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner when healthy. His scoring can come and go, but he's in a great spot and offers shots and hits for added value.
Mason Marchment, LW, Stars (31% rostered)
Marchment was activated from IR on Sunday, marking his first game since Dec. 27. He's expected to play L3 with the newly-acquired Granlund at center and Logan Stankoven on the other wing. Prior to his injury, Marchment was enjoying career season with 27 points in 33 games. Hopefully, he can pick up where he left off.
Will Smith, C/RW, Sharks (7% rostered)
Smith has scored a point in six straight games and, with Granlund traded to the Stars, it's opened up some minutes for Smith. He's played on the right wing for much of the season, but the Sharks may opt to play him at center behind Macklin Celebrini. It's something to watch for; he's a very talented young player who can score points for managers looking for a streaming option.
Owen Power, D, Sabres (26% rostered)
With an assist Sunday against the Devils, Power stretched his assists streak to four games. Power and Bowen Byram aren't reliable fantasy players because they contribute on offense so infrequently, and Rasmus Dahlin hogs all the power play minutes. However, it might be a good time to take advantage of this hot streak; the Sabres face the Jackets, Predators and Rangers coming up, three teams that are having trouble keeping pucks out of their net.
Tony DeAngelo, D, Islanders (21% rostered)
DeAngelo should be the first quarterback to go after on the Isles power play. He's averaging 25 minutes through four games since joining the Isles and, clearly, Patrick Roy already trusts him a lot. (Maybe by necessity, but still counts).
Cam Talbot, G, Red Wings (50% rostered)
This is your last change to grab Talbot, who's won four straight games amidst the Wings' five-game winning streak heading into Vancouver on Sunday. It's unlikely Talbot will keep up this pace for the rest of the season, but for now he has a firm hold on the starting job. Talbot's value for Week 18, however, is rather muted because the Wings only play twice.
Jake Allen, G, Devils (43% rostered)
As I noted last week, Allen's fantasy value is in quantity, not necessarily quality. The Devils have been far too inconsistent and injuries to key players Nico Hischier and Erik Haula have really hurt them. Allen's quality starts percentage hovers a little over 50 percent for his career, per hockey-reference.com, so you'll have to watch for matchups.
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Blue Jackets (36% rostered)
As long as the Jackets keep scoring, Merzlikins will have a chance to win games. And when he's on fire as he has been over the past two weeks - four wins, eight goals allowed in five games - he has a ton of fantasy value. The Jackets have one of the easier schedules in Week 18 per the schedule matrix.
Short-term streamers
(< 50% rostered on chof360)
JJ Peterka, LW/RW, Sabres (40% rostered)
Jason Zucker, LW, Sabres (23% rostered)
Peterka scored a goal Sunday against the Sabres to extend his points streak to three games. It was a costly win, however, with Tage Thompson exiting the game due to a hit to the head and Jiri Kulich leaving with an apparent knee injury. That leaves Peterka all by himself on the top line, and the immediate assumption is that the Sabres might lean on him even more if Thompson and Kulich aren't available. Peterka might have some streaming value if his minutes increase.
Zucker's another Sabre who might see increased minutes. He's scored a goal in each of his past two games.
Alex Kerfoot, C/LW, Utah (1% rostered)
There might be some hidden value here with Kerfoot stepping in as 1C to replace Cooley. Kerfoot scored a goal with 16:48 TOI in his first game in that spot, but the worry is Barrett Hayton stealing some minutes and Kerfoot's own limited offensive ability. This is a streaming option due to usage only, and not because Kerfoot has untapped talent.
Adam Boqvist, D, Islanders (1% rostered)
Scott Perunovich, D, Islanders (0% rostered)
Boqvist and Perunovich are distant second choices to DeAngelo. Perunovich notched two assists in his first two games but averaged just 18 minutes per game, and Boqvist scored a goal but played only 10:39 in his Isles debut. It's a big step up for both from inconsistent roles on the Blues and Panthers, respectively, but still not good enough to be relevant even in the deepest of leagues.
Leevi Merilainen, G, Senators (28% rostered)
Anton Forsberg, G, Senators (5% rostered)
Both Forsberg and Merilainen have had really strong moments for the Sens, but note Linus Ullmark is practicing and likely returning this week. The Sens play a week-high four games, and I suspect Sweden would also like to see Ullmark in some game action before 4 Nations begins. Merilainen and Forsberg have limited shelf life and both can be dropped when Ullmark returns.
Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Penguins (18% rostered)
Obviously, start Nedeljkovic at your own risk, but it's worth noting how well he's been playing. He's won two his past three games with just four goals allowed, and the upcoming schedule isn't daunting; they face the struggling Devils, the inconsistent Rangers and the mediocre Flyers heading into 4 Nations. Nedeljkovic will get at least two games - Rangers and Flyers are back-to-back - giving managers a chance at both quality and quantity.
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